Ethereum and its derivatives (/ETH futures, ETHE, related proxies) are forming a divergent double bottom with a clear change in behavior.
Twenty days ago, on February 5th, price made an aggressive decline into a low.
The recent retest of that level was different.
The second decline was slower. Less impulsive. After spending two sessions near support, price reversed sharply to the upside.
Same price zone. Different behavior.
That matters.
Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF Showing Double Bottom with Price and RSI divergence
How I’m Trading It
Under normal conditions, I wait for price to reclaim the 200-hour or 200-day moving average before initiating long exposure.
This setup is compelling enough — and the broader decline deep enough — that I’m taking half-sized trades based on momentum alone.
I’m holding the underlying asset and trading long its derivatives.
Trade rules: If 14 Hour RSI is above 50, I’m long. If it’s below 50, I’m out. Here’s what the last 7 years would have looked like at $10k per trade using this simple RSI momentum signal (excluding the preferred 200 moving average filter)
Hypothetical 600% return over 7-years with $10k per trade on ETHE using RSI > 50 as momentum.
Because price is still below the 200-hour moving average, I’m managing these trades manually. If price reclaims the 200-hour average, my automated systems will take over.
Why Ethereum
Most stocks and ETFs do not consistently reward momentum. Very few liquid markets produce enough expansion to justify the attention and effort required to trade them systematically.
Ethereum is one of them.
Using trend + momentum signals, I avoided roughly 80% of the recent selloff. That allowed me to observe the decline without emotional pressure.
Now we’re seeing potential re-expansion.
Could it drop further? Yes.
If 14-hour RSI falls below 50, I’m out.
Could it double from here and still remain below last year’s highs? Also yes.
The asymmetry is attractive.
Trade Framework (Simplified)
If 14-hour RSI > 50 → Long
If 14-hour RSI < 50 → Flat
This is not a recommendation. No sizing guidance is implied. Only deploy capital you can afford to risk.
— Andrew Falde
Founder, Edge Navigator
