You will see two types of win rate referenced inside Edge Navigator.
One is regular win rate — the percentage of individual trades that close as winners.
The other is 10-trade win rate (sometimes called 10-trade hit rate) — the percentage of rolling 10-trade sequences that end profitable overall.
They measure different things.
Regular Win Rate
Regular win rate answers a simple question: how often does a single trade close green?
If a strategy has a 40% win rate, that means 4 out of 10 trades win on average over a large sample.
People often assume that is weak. It is not.
Win rate alone says nothing about:
Size of winners
Size of losers
Duration of each
Now let’s separate probability from experience.
10-Trade Win Rate
The 10-trade win rate asks a more practical question:
If I take 10 trades in a row, how often do I end that group profitable?
It is not measuring how many trades won. It is measuring whether the 10-trade sequence as a whole made money.
You can have:
40% regular win rate
70% 10-trade win rate
That combination is common in asymmetric strategies.
Example 1 – High Win Rate, Negative Result
If you are unfamiliar with R and how we size trades, review this first:
https://research.edgenavigator.com/p/what-is-r-in-trading
10 trades:
+1R
+1R
+1R
+1R
+1R
+1R
+1R
+1R
-5R
-5R
Regular win rate: 80%
Total: +8R − 10R = -2R
Most trades won. The sequence lost money.
Example 2 – Lower Win Rate, Positive Result
10 trades:
-1R
-1R
-1R
+3R
-1R
+4R
-1R
-1R
+2R
+3R
Regular win rate: 40%
Total: +12R − 6R = +6R
More losses than wins. The sequence made money.
That is the difference between counting winners and measuring outcomes.
Now let’s talk about time.
Time in Winners vs. Time in Losers
Many disciplined strategies are built around small, predefined stops and larger upside targets. Losses are cut quickly. Winners are allowed to develop.
Imagine this pattern:
• Losing trades last 2 days on average
• Winning trades last 5 days on average
• Win rate = 40%
Out of 10 trades:
6 losses × 2 days = 12 days in losing trades
4 wins × 5 days = 20 days in winning trades
Even with a 40% win rate, you spend more time in winning trades than losing trades.
That changes the psychological experience.
You are not sitting in prolonged drawdowns. You are taking small losses quickly and spending more time in positions that are working.
When winners are larger in R and longer in duration, two things often happen:
The total R over 10 trades trends positive.
A high percentage of rolling 10-trade windows end profitable.
That is how a 40% regular win rate can produce a 65%–75% 10-trade win rate.
Regular win rate measures how often you are right on a single trade.
10-trade win rate measures how often discipline over a small sequence leads to net profit.
Both matter. But they answer different questions.
Inside Edge Navigator, we show both numbers because traders experience results in sequences, not isolated statistics. Regular win rate describes trade-level probability. 10-trade win rate describes what following the plan typically feels like over a realistic batch of trades.
— Andrew Falde
Founder, Edge Navigator